Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 99¢ · $37K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$36.8K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 99.2¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$36.7K

Total Shares36,969

Combined PnL+$2.8K

No4 traders

Total Value$77.35

Total Shares10,314

Combined PnL-$110.19

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

97 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nomorepredict	Yesavg 90.5¢	$996	$35.7K	+$2.7K	53% 179-159 (338)
poorersob	Yesavg 99.7¢	$526.8	$524.8	-$2	72% 1086-426 (1512)
balthazar	Yesavg 83¢	$304.33	$361.72	+$57.4	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100	Yesavg 93.2¢	$69.31	$69.56	+$0.25	69% 404-180 (584)
RE rebotsliafCTR<$100	Noavg 0.1¢	$9.44	$58.16	+$37.09	25% 185-564 (749)
viniiCTR<$100	Noavg 5.3¢	$74.14	$10.71	-$63.42	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100	Yesavg 86.2¢	$4.95	$5.71	+$0.76	69% 156-69 (225)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Noavg 8.9¢	$56.59	$4.74	-$51.86	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
solwizzo-onXCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$35.75	$3.75	-$32	67% 347-174 (521)

Nomorepredict

Yes

Invested

$996

Value

$35.7K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

53%

179-159 (338)

poorersob

Yes

Invested

$526.8

Value

$524.8

PnL

-$2

Record

72%

1086-426 (1512)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$304.33

Value

$361.72

PnL

+$57.4

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

SeniorLaghetto<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.31

Value

$69.56

PnL

+$0.25

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

rebotsliafCTR<$100

Invested

$9.44

Value

$58.16

PnL

+$37.09

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

viniiCTR<$100

Invested

$74.14

Value

$10.71

PnL

-$63.42

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0.76

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Invested

$56.59

Value

$4.74

PnL

-$51.86

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

solwizzo-onXCTR<$100

Invested

$35.75

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$32

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

97 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.