Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 45% (973–1210, n=2183) · was PM monthly #666 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
973W / 1210L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 2183 settled
Batting Avg
59.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2184
Source
PM monthly #666
Record (90 d)
403/616 · 65%
Trades
3,990
Markets
2,734
Volume
$10.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATeam Falcons $1.4K · now 43¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (59% of 92)
Specialties
2,442 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 40¢- Esports
+7 pts
side won 46% of 2195 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +3%
- Tennis
+10 pts
side won 49% of 57 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +7%
- NHL
+17 pts
side won 65% of 20 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 43% of 120 at an average 46¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 14% of 528)
- 30–50¢: 51%(won 47% of 1238)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 70% of 671)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 100% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.