Consensus PnL $254K · win rate 61% (690–435, n=1125) · was PM monthly #892 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$253.7K
Record
690W / 435L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1125 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1111
Source
PM monthly #892
Trades
290
Markets
1,232
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5Over $82 · now 48¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
Specialties
845 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 53¢- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 92% of 358 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +34%
- Tennis
+41 pts
side won 82% of 51 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +51%
- NBA
+16 pts
side won 66% of 244 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 17% of 12 at an average 39¢ entry (−22 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 36% of 144)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 76% of 265)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 84% of 230)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 94% of 206)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.