Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5

18 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 56¢ · $151K held · ends Nov 1

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 86%

Total Value

$151.2K

Combined PnL

-$579.15

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$61.0K

Total Shares137,225

Combined PnL-$512.48

Over18 traders

Total Value$90.2K

Total Shares159,931

Combined PnL-$66.68

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NB nb1985CTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$60.0K	$59.5K	-$491.79	51% 25-24 (49)
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Overavg 56.4¢	$17.4K	$17.1K	-$274.09	51% 1097-1058 (2155)
RN1	Overavg 55¢	$16.7K	$16.9K	+$156.17	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
HI hi774c	Overavg 55¢	$12.9K	$13.0K	+$116.87	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
KY Kyn008	Overavg 57¢	$12.3K	$12.2K	-$107.59	49% 258-268 (526)
CA Cannae	Overavg 55.5¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	+$3.21	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 55.8¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$8.71	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 56.1¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$52.88	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 55.3¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$7.5	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Overavg 54¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$68.4	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 56.1¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$10.5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Underavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15.13	50% 246-244 (490)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$20	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 56.1¢	$692.71	$685.82	-$6.89	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 57¢	$358.53	$356.06	+$9.21	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0xheavy888	Overavg 55¢	$330	$333	+$3	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 57¢	$213.86	$208.4	-$5.46	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 56.4¢	$210.4	$207.02	-$3.38	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$206.85	$203.66	-$5.56	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
Sharkbets.pro	Overavg 55¢	$165	$166.5	+$1.5	51% 691-655 (1346)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 57¢	$17.1	$16.65	-$0.45	51% 1529-1481 (3010)

nb1985CTR

Under

Invested

$60,000

Value

$59.5K

PnL

-$491.79

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

BoggsFromShawshank

Over

Invested

$17,399.95

Value

$17.1K

PnL

-$274.09

Record

51%

1097-1058 (2155)

RN1

Over

Invested

$16,722.11

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$156.17

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$12,855.48

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$116.87

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Kyn008

Over

Invested

$12,265.7

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$107.59

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$8,868.75

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$3.21

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$7,769.24

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$8.71

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$4,665.48

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$52.88

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$2,712

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Over

Invested

$2,462.53

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$68.4

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,965

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

zhuz632CTR

Under

Invested

$1,300.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15.13

Record

50%

246-244 (490)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$692.71

Value

$685.82

PnL

-$6.89

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$358.53

Value

$356.06

PnL

+$9.21

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$330

Value

$333

PnL

+$3

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$213.86

Value

$208.4

PnL

-$5.46

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$210.4

Value

$207.02

PnL

-$3.38

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$206.85

Value

$203.66

PnL

-$5.56

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

Sharkbets.pro

Over

Invested

$165

Value

$166.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

691-655 (1346)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

$17.1

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.