Consensus PnL $117K · win rate 54% (848–723, n=1571) · was PM monthly #982 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$117.3K
Record
848W / 723L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 1571 settled
Batting Avg
68.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1494
Source
PM monthly #982 + pinned
Trades
17,066
Markets
2,570
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $3.1K · now 15¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
2,336 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 51¢- NBA
+2 pts
side won 51% of 823 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +1%
- Finance
+15 pts
side won 71% of 35 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +14%
- Esports
+2 pts
side won 57% of 708 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 50% of 105 at an average 52¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 15% of 379)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 44% of 624)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 61% of 916)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 86% of 417)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.