Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 15¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 29

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

12.9¢ → 15¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares126,160

Combined PnL+$3.1K

No2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,834

Combined PnL+$55.95

Yes — 85%No — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Yesavg 13.3¢	$4.5K	$5.3K	+$600.67	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
ReformedxCTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$4.2K	$4.7K	+$471.01	52% 839-788 (1627)
StreamLIVECTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$1.6K	$3.1K	+$1.4K	55% 1253-1017 (2270)
KateBollingerCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$290.67	68% 1753-815 (2568)
enpirugbrpti	Noavg 83¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$38	54% 3501-2966 (6467)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$526.22	50% 7330-7454 (14784)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 83.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$17.95	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 17¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$138.54	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
EA easymoneysniperzzCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$576.3	$806.82	+$212.21	43% 414-541 (955)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 14.8¢	$42.19	$408.51	+$251.65	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
JustADonkCTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$146.41	$125.21	-$21.2	55% 900-743 (1643)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$21.25	$40.81	+$19.56	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
JO jole24CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$15.48	$16.33	+$0.74	44% 1031-1292 (2323)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Yes

Invested

$4,539.78

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$600.67

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

ReformedxCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,195.7

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$471.01

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

StreamLIVECTR

Yes

Invested

$1,610.76

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

1253-1017 (2270)

KateBollingerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,486.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$290.67

Record

68%

1753-815 (2568)

enpirugbrpti

Invested

$1,660

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$38

Record

54%

3501-2966 (6467)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,042.02

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$526.22

Record

50%

7330-7454 (14784)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$1,538.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.95

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,207.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$138.54

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

easymoneysniperzzCTR

Yes

Invested

$576.3

Value

$806.82

PnL

+$212.21

Record

43%

414-541 (955)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$42.19

Value

$408.51

PnL

+$251.65

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

JustADonkCTR

Yes

Invested

$146.41

Value

$125.21

PnL

-$21.2

Record

55%

900-743 (1643)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.25

Value

$40.81

PnL

+$19.56

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

jole24CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.48

Value

$16.33

PnL

+$0.74

Record

44%

1031-1292 (2323)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$497.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

598.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.