Consensus PnL $39K · win rate 28% (35–91, n=126) · PM monthly #510 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$39.1K
Record
35W / 91L
Win Rate
28.0%
of 126 settled
Batting Avg
89.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1629
Source
PM monthly #510
Record (90 d)
40/135 · 30%
Trades
15,311
Markets
306
Volume
$4.5M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5Over $712 · now 92¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (44% of 28)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?No $500 · now 74¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (33% of 28)
Specialties
121 settled consensus markets · held side won 26% at an average entry of 34¢- NBA
+12 pts
side won 71% of 14 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 10% of 83 at an average 22¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 64%(won 3% of 78)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 25% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 75% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 100% of 19)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.