Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?

7 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (35%) · No at 69¢ · $104K held · ended Oct 10

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 35%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$104.4K

Combined PnL

$606.66

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 69¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 20 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$77.4K

Total Shares104,986

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes13 traders

Total Value$26.9K

Total Shares86,288

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 35%Yes — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 85% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Noavg 67¢	$65.4K	$72.2K	+$2.0K	51% 220-214 (434)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$18.7K	$17.6K	$-1.1K	49% 258-268 (526)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67.2¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$84.67	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$50	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$65	57% 1048-784 (1832)
MA marchettamakerCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$19.49	28% 15-39 (54)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$365.85	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
LE leegunner	Noavg 68.3¢	$3.3K	$719.97	+$228.18	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
SA Saber-greed	Noavg 68¢	$599.98	$652.92	-$4.41	59% 2576-1812 (4388)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$561.22	$535.71	-$8.5	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$500	$477.27	-$30.3	49% 3939-4125 (8064)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$500	$477.27	-$22.73	51% 3950-3850 (7800)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 65.4¢	$294.55	$333.1	+$9.29	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 64¢	$191.99	$221.99	+$10.5	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$133.35	$135.16	+$1.81	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$93.23	$98.8	+$1.44	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$53.3	$60.68	+$2.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$39.93	$38.12	-$0.61
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$91.15	$80.89	-$10.26	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
EdwardINCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$31.75	$25	-$6.75	70% 2223-973 (3196)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$21.8	$20.2	-$1.92	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$9.99	$8.51	-$1.62	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.86	$7.93	+$0.38	58% 18783-13847 (32630)

Kch-Temp

Invested

$65,386.79

Value

$72.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$18,691.52

Value

$17.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,188.17

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$84.67

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$50

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,079.92

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$65

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

marchettamakerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,247.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$19.49

Record

28%

15-39 (54)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$365.85

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

leegunner

Invested

$3,311.31

Value

$719.97

PnL

+$228.18

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Saber-greed

Invested

$599.98

Value

$652.92

PnL

-$4.41

Record

59%

2576-1812 (4388)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$561.22

Value

$535.71

PnL

-$8.5

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

NotradecopyCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$477.27

PnL

-$30.3

Record

49%

3939-4125 (8064)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$477.27

PnL

-$22.73

Record

51%

3950-3850 (7800)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$294.55

Value

$333.1

PnL

+$9.29

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$191.99

Value

$221.99

PnL

+$10.5

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$133.35

Value

$135.16

PnL

+$1.81

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$93.23

Value

$98.8

PnL

+$1.44

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Invested

$91.15

Value

$80.89

PnL

-$10.26

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

EdwardINCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.75

Value

$25

PnL

-$6.75

Record

70%

2223-973 (3196)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.8

Value

$20.2

PnL

-$1.92

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$1.62

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$6.86

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 20 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 85% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.