Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5

12 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 92¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 7

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 92¢

+9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 27 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares23,328

Combined PnL-$225.36

Under15 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares49,203

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$8.4K	$7.7K	-$664.46	97% 5128-152 (5280)
RN1	Overavg 64.3¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	-$264.61	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 82.5¢	$3.3K	$2.3K	+$204.43	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 71.1¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$527.16	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 41.7¢	$6.0K	$1.4K	$-4.6K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.7¢	$5.9K	$1.1K	$-4.7K
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$148.43	$286.91	+$138.47
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Overavg 96.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$65.26	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Underavg 7.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$99.07	53% 6331-5613 (11944)
dips.	Overavg 95.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$53.84	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 15.7¢	$2.0K	$1.0K	-$969.26	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 10.4¢	$1.0K	$801.85	-$240.34	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
TS TSFSYD	Overavg 87.8¢	$678.93	$711.68	+$32.75	52% 157-147 (304)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 7.2¢	$380.59	$422.87	+$42.28	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
AN Anon455	Overavg 76¢	$209.92	$235.14	+$25.22	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 80.7¢	$309.96	$200.45	+$23.62	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR	Underavg 1.4¢	$20.41	$120.82	+$100.41	32% 599-1247 (1846)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR	Underavg 1.9¢	$27.07	$116.57	+$89.49	58% 413-298 (711)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Underavg 56.9¢	$559.42	$78.61	-$480.81	54% 1244-1053 (2297)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 33¢	$262.72	$63.63	-$199.1	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 23¢	$150.27	$52.26	-$98.01	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
snoopy.traderCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$10	$40	+$30	40% 351-527 (878)
ocr7CTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$30.19	$30.25	+$0.06	55% 1405-1155 (2560)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Overavg 60.6¢	$15.28	$23.18	+$7.9	53% 2185-1944 (4129)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 93¢	$20.01	$19.8	-$0.22	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Underavg 55.5¢	$96.26	$13.87	-$82.39	54% 818-692 (1510)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 1.9¢	$3	$12.67	+$9.67	65% 24597-12971 (37568)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$8,402.49

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$664.46

Record

97%

5128-152 (5280)

RN1

Over

Invested

$6,590.8

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$264.61

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$3,345.32

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$204.43

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,796.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$527.16

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,018.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Under$5,870.5641.7¢$-4.7K

Over$148.4347.6¢+$138.47

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Over

Invested

$1,333.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$65.26

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Under

Invested

$1,076

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$99.07

Record

53%

6331-5613 (11944)

dips.

Over

Invested

$1,118.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$53.84

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,973.23

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$969.26

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,042.19

Value

$801.85

PnL

-$240.34

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

TSFSYD

Over

Invested

$678.93

Value

$711.68

PnL

+$32.75

Record

52%

157-147 (304)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$380.59

Value

$422.87

PnL

+$42.28

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$209.92

Value

$235.14

PnL

+$25.22

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$309.96

Value

$200.45

PnL

+$23.62

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR

Under

Invested

$20.41

Value

$120.82

PnL

+$100.41

Record

32%

599-1247 (1846)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR

Under

Invested

$27.07

Value

$116.57

PnL

+$89.49

Record

58%

413-298 (711)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Under

Invested

$559.42

Value

$78.61

PnL

-$480.81

Record

54%

1244-1053 (2297)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$262.72

Value

$63.63

PnL

-$199.1

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$150.27

Value

$52.26

PnL

-$98.01

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

snoopy.traderCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$40

PnL

+$30

Record

40%

351-527 (878)

ocr7CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.19

Value

$30.25

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

1405-1155 (2560)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Over

Invested

$15.28

Value

$23.18

PnL

+$7.9

Record

53%

2185-1944 (4129)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$20.01

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.22

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.26

Value

$13.87

PnL

-$82.39

Record

54%

818-692 (1510)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$9.67

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 27 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.