Consensus PnL $471K · win rate 27% (12–33, n=45) · PM monthly #443 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$470.6K
Record
12W / 33L
Win Rate
27.0%
of 45 settled
Batting Avg
13.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2222
Source
PM monthly #443
Trades
1,757
Markets
93
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $180K · now 17¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
82 settled consensus markets · held side won 26% at an average entry of 18¢- Crypto
+15 pts
side won 33% of 21 · avg entry 18¢
ROI +14%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 22% of 50 · avg entry 17¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 83%(won 18% of 68)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 58% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.