Consensus PnL $444K · win rate 65% (157–85, n=242) · was PM monthly #149 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$443.7K
Record
157W / 85L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 242 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#938
Source
PM monthly #149
Trades
35
Markets
247
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $49K · now 71¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (69% of 27)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $8.9K · now 71¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (88% of 27)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 66¢- Soccer
+31 pts
side won 100% of 80 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +26%
- Esports
+34 pts
side won 100% of 24 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +33%
- MLB
+43 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +35%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 96% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 100% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 100% of 66)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.