Consensus PnL -$650K · win rate 37% (14–24, n=38) · PM monthly #126 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-650.3K
Record
14W / 24L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 38 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2141
Source
PM monthly #126
Trades
60
Markets
42
Volume
$5.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $528K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $38K · now 28¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?No $3.2K · now 11¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No $1.0K · now 94¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
15 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 52¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ThisAgain's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 47%(won 86% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.