Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

49 of 71 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 72¢ · $531K held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$531.1K

Combined PnL

$45.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 71.5¢

+15% since entry · 49 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 72%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49 of 71 top traders (69%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No49 traders

Total Value$481.3K

Total Shares669,754

Combined PnL+$59.1K

Yes22 traders

Total Value$49.8K

Total Shares173,974

Combined PnL$-13.4K

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

49 traders

Top 2 hold 27%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 27% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 28

Aligned

sharpNo 65% · 20

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 27

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 28

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 55

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Siddhartha1	Noavg 64¢	$80.3K	$89.7K	+$9.4K	51% 59-57 (116)
BR BreakTheBank	Noavg 65.4¢	$36.4K	$39.8K	+$3.4K	43% 561-738 (1299)
TH ThisAgainCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$47.4K	$37.6K	$-9.9K	33% 12-24 (36)
WordleAddict	Noavg 66¢	$33.0K	$36.0K	+$2.7K	61% 941-614 (1555)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 66¢	$26.4K	$28.8K	+$2.2K	72% 257-102 (359)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 67.3¢	$21.0K	$22.3K	+$1.3K	38% 20-32 (52)
Protruder	Noavg 67¢	$20.1K	$21.6K	+$1.4K	81% 22-5 (27)
TheOneto3	Noavg 71¢	$21.3K	$21.6K	+$150	50% 464-457 (921)
WA wan123	Noavg 46¢	$13.9K	$21.6K	+$7.7K	39% 196-304 (500)
MI midterms	Noavg 63¢	$15.3K	$17.5K	+$2.1K	—
PH Philwos	Noavg 66¢	$14.2K	$15.4K	+$1.2K	— 10-3 (13)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 46¢	$9.5K	$14.8K	+$5.2K	56% 973-769 (1742)
WongKimArk	Noavg 50¢	$5.0K	$14.4K	+$4.0K	63% 217-127 (344)
Kettle	Noavg 66¢	$13.2K	$14.4K	+$1.1K	53% 241-218 (459)
TE TeamA	Noavg 65¢	$12.9K	$14.2K	+$1.3K	— 2-0 (2)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Noavg 67.1¢	$12.3K	$13.2K	+$808.51	32% 742-1577 (2319)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Noavg 46.4¢	$7.5K	$11.6K	+$4.0K	62% 45-28 (73)
CO cocos228	Noavg 65¢	$10.1K	$11.2K	+$1.0K	72% 68-27 (95)
ScottyNooo	Noavg 49.1¢	$8.1K	$11.2K	+$3.0K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
SU SunlineTicker	Noavg 53¢	$6.7K	$8.8K	+$2.0K	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
JJo	Noavg 68.2¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$100.04	66% 944-496 (1440)
LI lissartter	Noavg 66.9¢	$6.3K	$6.5K	+$148.36	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
ZE zerosmart	Noavg 47¢	$1.2K	$6.1K	+$2.0K	48% 66-72 (138)
0X 0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186	Noavg 68¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$259.59	55% 291-238 (529)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 36.7¢	$6.3K	$4.7K	$-1.2K	53% 1560-1362 (2922)

Siddhartha1

Invested

$80,275.47

Value

$89.7K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

BreakTheBank

Invested

$36,372.52

Value

$39.8K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

ThisAgainCTR

Yes

Invested

$47,434.62

Value

$37.6K

PnL

$-9.9K

Record

33%

12-24 (36)

WordleAddict

Invested

$32,999.86

Value

$36.0K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

SlenderMan

Invested

$26,399.89

Value

$28.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$21,039.75

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Protruder

Invested

$20,100

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

81%

22-5 (27)

TheOneto3

Invested

$21,300

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$150

Record

50%

464-457 (921)

wan123

Invested

$13,885.09

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

midterms

Invested

$15,278.76

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

—

Philwos

Invested

$14,233.14

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

10-3 (13)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$9,467.21

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

WongKimArk

Invested

$5,000

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

Kettle

Invested

$13,199.98

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

241-218 (459)

TeamA

Invested

$12,904.59

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Invested

$12,275.96

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$808.51

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

Loyalty-Crash

Invested

$7,473.25

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

cocos228

Invested

$10,127.55

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

ScottyNooo

Invested

$8,145.45

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

SunlineTicker

Invested

$6,736.9

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

JJo

Invested

$7,099.95

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$100.04

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

lissartter

Invested

$6,321.81

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$148.36

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

zerosmart

Invested

$1,160.04

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

66-72 (138)

0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186

Invested

$5,080.62

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$259.59

Record

55%

291-238 (529)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,288.44

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 72%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49 of 71 top traders (69%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

49 traders

Top 2 hold 27%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 27% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 28

Aligned

sharpNo 65% · 20

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 27

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 28

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 55

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.3%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.