Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

28 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (68%) · Yes at 90¢ · $156K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 68%

Total Value

$155.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 89.8¢

+7% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

28 of 41 top traders (68%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes28 traders

Total Value$139.3K

Total Shares156,909

Combined PnL+$8.6K

No13 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares147,155

Combined PnL$-12.5K

Yes — 68%No — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 17

Aligned

sharpYes 81% · 16

Aligned

ctrYes 59% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 72% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 66% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 90¢	$29.1K	$28.9K	-$146.38	69% 156-69 (225)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 88.9¢	$19.4K	$19.2K	-$78.87	96% 631-24 (655)
Erasmus.	Yesavg 82.2¢	$17.0K	$18.3K	+$1.5K	65% 393-215 (608)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 88.5¢	$17.7K	$17.9K	+$220.24	63% 353-204 (557)
aenews2	Yesavg 74¢	$11.4K	$13.8K	+$2.4K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 82.1¢	$6.7K	$7.2K	+$609.9	89% 923-118 (1041)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 74.8¢	$5.9K	$6.9K	+$1.1K	68% 2074-958 (3032)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 75.2¢	$13.9K	$6.1K	+$1.8K	50% 147-145 (292)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Noavg 13.4¢	$7.1K	$6.0K	$-1.3K	52% 284-262 (546)
AV Avamax	Yesavg 85.9¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$148.16	81% 421-101 (522)
SK skibabiba	Yesavg 84¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$226.81	87% 95-14 (109)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 75.5¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$511.98	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
TH ThisAgainCTR	Noavg 26¢	$7.8K	$3.1K	$-4.7K	33% 12-24 (36)
BigMackyGCTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	$-1.4K	20% 108-423 (531)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 16.7¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	$-1.2K	47% 476-535 (1011)
0xdc3E831cad	Yesavg 82¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$119.9	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 83.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$65.3	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 91¢	$1.0K	$979.01	-$28.3	89% 4653-547 (5200)
TA takeormakeCTR	Noavg 29.4¢	$2.4K	$866.2	$-1.6K	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
LO Logan.CTR	Noavg 22.9¢	$1.6K	$781.77	-$841.64	41% 648-925 (1573)
rabbit007	Yesavg 78.4¢	$671.05	$755.24	+$94.47	53% 355-309 (664)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 84¢	$666.61	$712.67	+$46.06	66% 1107-565 (1672)
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 93.7¢	$655.99	$617.39	-$36.5	84% 516-99 (615)
Xeny	Yesavg 76¢	$494.01	$573.31	+$87.1	60% 978-662 (1640)
PMTraderAdam	Yesavg 85.9¢	$526.51	$529.21	+$2.7	77% 830-249 (1079)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$29,067.53

Value

$28.9K

PnL

-$146.38

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$19,371.99

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$78.87

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Erasmus.

Yes

Invested

$17,010.15

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

65%

393-215 (608)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$17,699.73

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$220.24

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$11,410.84

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$6,700

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$609.9

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$5,872.88

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$13,904.5

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Invested

$7,053.89

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

Avamax

Yes

Invested

$4,592.59

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$148.16

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

skibabiba

Yes

Invested

$3,528

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$226.81

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$2,613.33

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$511.98

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ThisAgainCTR

Invested

$7,799.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

33%

12-24 (36)

BigMackyGCTR

Invested

$3,408.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$3,084.63

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

0xdc3E831cad

Yes

Invested

$1,524.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$119.9

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,388.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$65.3

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$1,010.09

Value

$979.01

PnL

-$28.3

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

takeormakeCTR

Invested

$2,448.19

Value

$866.2

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Logan.CTR

Invested

$1,565.38

Value

$781.77

PnL

-$841.64

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

rabbit007

Yes

Invested

$671.05

Value

$755.24

PnL

+$94.47

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$666.61

Value

$712.67

PnL

+$46.06

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$655.99

Value

$617.39

PnL

-$36.5

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

Xeny

Yes

Invested

$494.01

Value

$573.31

PnL

+$87.1

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

PMTraderAdam

Yes

Invested

$526.51

Value

$529.21

PnL

+$2.7

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

28 of 41 top traders (68%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Late

2313h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 17

Aligned

sharpYes 81% · 16

Aligned

ctrYes 59% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 72% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 66% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.