Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

39 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 98¢ · $4.9M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$4.9M

Combined PnL

$486.0K

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 98.3¢

+11% since entry · 39 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

39 of 43 top traders (91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No39 traders

Total Value$4.9M

Total Shares4,952,847

Combined PnL+$493.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares166,451

Combined PnL$-7.4K

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

39 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 85% · 20

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 23

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE ReedUpdatee	Noavg 90.3¢	$1.1M	$1.2M	+$94.7K	48% 48-52 (100)
ON onekey02	Noavg 90.2¢	$934.2K	$1.0M	+$83.6K	98% 415-10 (425)
TH ThisAgain	Noavg 87¢	$467.4K	$528.1K	+$60.7K	33% 12-24 (36)
OL ololololololololo	Noavg 86.6¢	$405.4K	$434.7K	+$52.2K	35% 41-77 (118)
CL Clicker1	Noavg 89¢	$271.0K	$299.3K	+$28.3K	— 10-9 (19)
IG IGORS	Noavg 92.4¢	$228.4K	$284.4K	+$18.9K	— 10-1 (11)
BI BigBusinessPro	Noavg 85.4¢	$232.8K	$267.9K	+$35.1K	— 2-0 (2)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 88.9¢	$169.7K	$186.9K	+$17.2K	85% 605-108 (713)
SE SecondWindCapital	Noavg 88.2¢	$140.2K	$156.3K	+$16.1K	36% 25-45 (70)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 86.8¢	$95.4K	$106.4K	+$11.0K	68% 124-59 (183)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 52.6¢	$31.5K	$60.0K	+$28.5K	88% 212-28 (240)
How.Dare.You	Noavg 89.2¢	$44.6K	$49.1K	+$4.6K	72% 815-323 (1138)
RE refzer	Noavg 95¢	$43.6K	$45.2K	+$1.5K	96% 51-2 (53)
Imbafer	Noavg 85.4¢	$4.5K	$42.6K	+$15.0K	56% 238-189 (427)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 93.8¢	$38.8K	$40.7K	+$1.9K	73% 196-73 (269)
0X 0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981	Noavg 85.8¢	$24.4K	$28.0K	+$3.5K	63% 17-10 (27)
eCash	Noavg 87.8¢	$23.0K	$25.8K	+$2.8K	68% 331-155 (486)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 87.7¢	$12.6K	$22.6K	+$10.0K	80% 168-42 (210)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 94¢	$14.1K	$14.7K	+$645	97% 140-4 (144)
OL OLOTH	Noavg 92.3¢	$13.3K	$14.2K	+$872.49	96% 757-31 (788)
scottxia1988	Noavg 93¢	$12.6K	$13.3K	+$715.5	78% 178-49 (227)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 88.2¢	$8.5K	$11.1K	+$1.1K	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Roflan-ludoman	Noavg 86.4¢	$9.5K	$10.8K	+$1.3K	62% 649-396 (1045)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 87.5¢	$9.6K	$10.8K	+$1.2K	88% 2229-292 (2521)
TR tryingout1	Noavg 89.2¢	$8.9K	$9.8K	+$910	80% 85-21 (106)

ReedUpdatee

Invested

$1,068,880

Value

$1.2M

PnL

+$94.7K

Record

48%

48-52 (100)

onekey02

Invested

$934,186.51

Value

$1.0M

PnL

+$83.6K

Record

98%

415-10 (425)

ThisAgain

Invested

$467,400.45

Value

$528.1K

PnL

+$60.7K

Record

33%

12-24 (36)

ololololololololo

Invested

$405,369.32

Value

$434.7K

PnL

+$52.2K

Record

35%

41-77 (118)

Clicker1

Invested

$271,017.14

Value

$299.3K

PnL

+$28.3K

Record

—

10-9 (19)

IGORS

Invested

$228,381.33

Value

$284.4K

PnL

+$18.9K

Record

—

10-1 (11)

BigBusinessPro

Invested

$232,846.39

Value

$267.9K

PnL

+$35.1K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$169,670.2

Value

$186.9K

PnL

+$17.2K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

SecondWindCapital

Invested

$140,204.26

Value

$156.3K

PnL

+$16.1K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$95,358.45

Value

$106.4K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$31,480

Value

$60.0K

PnL

+$28.5K

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

How.Dare.You

Invested

$44,576.79

Value

$49.1K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

72%

815-323 (1138)

refzer

Invested

$43,648.3

Value

$45.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

96%

51-2 (53)

Imbafer

Invested

$4,544.33

Value

$42.6K

PnL

+$15.0K

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$38,833.01

Value

$40.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

0xdea296167f11b40d6e0195599dc92900363be981

Invested

$24,415.03

Value

$28.0K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

63%

17-10 (27)

eCash

Invested

$23,001

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

TerreMoto

Invested

$12,580

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$14,100

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$645

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

OLOTH

Invested

$13,346.47

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$872.49

Record

96%

757-31 (788)

scottxia1988

Invested

$12,555

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$715.5

Record

78%

178-49 (227)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$8,547.98

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Roflan-ludoman

Invested

$9,501.65

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$9,620

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

tryingout1

Invested

$8,920

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$910

Record

80%

85-21 (106)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

39 of 43 top traders (91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

39 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 85% · 20

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 23

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.