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04
Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 49% (52–55, n=107) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 3 consensus positions
0x04143f1d...54b5be21Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$21.8K
Record
52W / 55L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 107 settled
Batting Avg
70.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1856
Source
PM monthly #996
Trades
559
Markets
136
Volume
$103.9K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?No $1.3K · now 74¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?No $758 · now 76¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?No $203 · now 62¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
75 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 36¢- Elections
+18 pts
side won 54% of 67 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 19% of 37)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 73% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 92% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 15%(won 100% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.