Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$106.9
61.3¢ → 61.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
137h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 60.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$110.65 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$58.46 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.5¢ | $827.81 | $808.78 | -$35.56 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.2¢ | $511.43 | $495.69 | -$22.9 | |
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j | Noavg 61¢ | $846 | $873.05 | +$6.27 | 64% 85-47 (132) |
TR TrueDignity | Noavg 68.3¢ | $220.16 | $203.14 | -$10.57 | 37% 44-76 (120) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $40.26 | $41.33 | +$1.07 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
WA wan123<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $16.25 | $15.38 | -$0.88 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
 RockyZet<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $16.57 | $14.18 | -$1.94 | 66% 257-130 (387) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $11 | $12.6 | +$2.3 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
paddaaInvested
$1,265.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$110.65
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$1,474.53
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$58.46
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Both legs:
Invested
$846
Value
$873.05
PnL
+$6.27
Record
64%
85-47 (132)
Invested
$220.16
Value
$203.14
PnL
-$10.57
Record
37%
44-76 (120)
Invested
$40.26
Value
$41.33
PnL
+$1.07
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$15.38
PnL
-$0.88
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
RockyZet<$100Invested
$16.57
Value
$14.18
PnL
-$1.94
Record
66%
257-130 (387)
Invested
$11
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$2.3
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.