Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 22¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$3.4K
-$128.66
23.1¢ → 22.4¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
160h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cookiejarCTR | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$136.06 | 69% 178-80 (258) |
TR TrueDignity | Noavg 80.9¢ | $809 | $783.99 | -$31.01 | 37% 44-76 (120) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 78.5¢ | $1.1K | $410.2 | -$40.89 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $358.33 | $392 | +$30.67 | 62% 412-249 (661) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $142.27 | $193.16 | +$50.89 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
 StarMasterCTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $114.63 | $111 | -$3.63 | 53% 1857-1640 (3497) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $10.03 | $11.41 | +$1.37 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
cookiejarCTRInvested
$1,589.77
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$136.06
Record
69%
178-80 (258)
Invested
$809
Value
$783.99
PnL
-$31.01
Record
37%
44-76 (120)
IstarothInvested
$1,061.81
Value
$410.2
PnL
-$40.89
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
clazzy1Invested
$358.33
Value
$392
PnL
+$30.67
Record
62%
412-249 (661)
Invested
$142.27
Value
$193.16
PnL
+$50.89
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$114.63
Value
$111
PnL
-$3.63
Record
53%
1857-1640 (3497)
Invested
$10.03
Value
$11.41
PnL
+$1.37
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.