Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.8K
$381.31
64.4¢ → 74.5¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
106h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrueDignity | Noavg 60.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$234.36 | 37% 44-76 (120) |
 paddaa | Noavg 67.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$102.04 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $124.26 | $163.34 | +$39.07 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $157.76 | $157.34 | -$0.42 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $65.61 | $71.86 | +$6.26 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
Invested
$1,053.71
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$234.36
Record
37%
44-76 (120)
paddaaInvested
$1,054.68
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$102.04
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
viniiCTRInvested
$124.26
Value
$163.34
PnL
+$39.07
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$157.76
Value
$157.34
PnL
-$0.42
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$65.61
Value
$71.86
PnL
+$6.26
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.