Consensus PnL $338K · win rate 87% (4857–701, n=5558) · PM monthly #271 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$338.5K
Record
4857W / 701L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 5558 settled
Batting Avg
53.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#286
Source
PM monthly #271
Trades
2,124
Markets
6,868
Volume
$13.2M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $5.1K · now 85¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $947 · now 85¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
4,697 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 86¢- Tennis
+14 pts
side won 93% of 224 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +10%
- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 95% of 4159 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +7%
- NBA
+10 pts
side won 97% of 268 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 42% of 168)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 66% of 213)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 87% of 351)
- 70¢ and up: 84%(won 99% of 3965)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.