Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.4K
$40.8
83.1¢ → 84.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
630h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 82.4¢ | $928.96 | $957.69 | +$28.73 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Noavg 84.5¢ | $946.67 | $946.94 | +$0.28 | 80% 5087-1257 (6344) |
RO rocky42019 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $224.06 | $222.74 | -$1.31 | 42% 1726-2358 (4084) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $200.35 | $205.32 | +$4.96 | 45% 1907-2353 (4260) |
 randomWalkingShrimp<$100 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $67.9 | $76.05 | +$8.15 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$928.96
Value
$957.69
PnL
+$28.73
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$946.67
Value
$946.94
PnL
+$0.28
Record
80%
5087-1257 (6344)
Invested
$224.06
Value
$222.74
PnL
-$1.31
Record
42%
1726-2358 (4084)
Invested
$200.35
Value
$205.32
PnL
+$4.96
Record
45%
1907-2353 (4260)
randomWalkingShrimp<$100Invested
$67.9
Value
$76.05
PnL
+$8.15
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.