Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 85¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 70%
$9.6K
$227.34
81.8¢ → 84.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
640h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBele | Yesavg 84¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$27.89 | 80% 5087-1257 (6344) |
PK pkz | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$168.55 | 57% 468-346 (814) |
 Socialista | Yesavg 78.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$85.78 | 63% 2723-1610 (4333) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $422.51 | $425.01 | +$2.5 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Noavg 20.3¢ | $238.44 | $185.91 | -$52.53 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
 viniiCTR | Noavg 16¢ | $160 | $155 | -$5 | 74% 2792-1003 (3795) |
 archaic<$100 | Yesavg 83.8¢ | $63.39 | $63.88 | +$0.49 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $44.78 | $45.05 | +$0.26 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.2¢ | $19.33 | $18.73 | -$0.6 | 57% 3068-2356 (5424) |
ED Ed2357<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $1 | $1.01 | +$0.01 | — 0-3 (3) |
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$5,058.19
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$27.89
Record
80%
5087-1257 (6344)
Invested
$2,221.19
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$168.55
Record
57%
468-346 (814)
SocialistaInvested
$1,086.11
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$85.78
Record
63%
2723-1610 (4333)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$422.51
Value
$425.01
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
Invested
$238.44
Value
$185.91
PnL
-$52.53
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
viniiCTRInvested
$160
Value
$155
PnL
-$5
Record
74%
2792-1003 (3795)
archaic<$100Invested
$63.39
Value
$63.88
PnL
+$0.49
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$44.78
Value
$45.05
PnL
+$0.26
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.33
Value
$18.73
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
3068-2356 (5424)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
0-3 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.