Consensus PnL $90K · win rate 56% (316–247, n=563) · PM monthly #382 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$90.0K
Record
316W / 247L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 563 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1394
Source
PM monthly #382
Trades
10
Markets
714
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ETDown $280 · now 46¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (60% of 36)
Specialties
293 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 55¢- Crypto
+43 pts
side won 96% of 111 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +42%
- Esports
+43 pts
side won 96% of 56 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +41%
- Soccer
+39 pts
side won 100% of 62 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 87% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 96% of 78)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 97% of 144)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 100% of 48)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.