Consensus PnL $94K · win rate 59% (1660–1171, n=2831) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$94.0K
Record
1660W / 1171L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 2831 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1208
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
2,178
Markets
4,137
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AB8 $463 · now 39¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Heroic)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?No $216 · now 17¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Counter-Strike: Acend vs FOKUS (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 PlayoffsFOKUS $13 · now 64¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 5)
Specialties
1,999 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 58¢- Esports
+34 pts
side won 92% of 870 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +30%
- NBA
+37 pts
side won 93% of 160 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +23%
- Tennis
+32 pts
side won 90% of 763 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +23%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 68% of 28 at an average 75¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −18%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 62% of 146)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 87% of 587)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 94% of 706)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 98% of 560)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.