Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 84¢ · $14K held · ends Dec 31

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

-$612.35

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 84¢

+33% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 84%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares14,432

Combined PnL+$3.1K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares11,002

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4600h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

64 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Barkshire-Hathaway	Yesavg 54.2¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.2K	64% 1093-623 (1716)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Yesavg 74.2¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$410.17	96% 328-13 (341)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 68¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$512.16	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
FL flawfenceCTR	Noavg 59¢	$3.9K	$1.1K	$-2.9K	46% 271-319 (590)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 34.4¢	$377.86	$928.12	+$550.26	92% 61-5 (66)
Udonsan	Yesavg 81.3¢	$804.4	$836.97	+$32.57	79% 250-67 (317)
AL alwaysOnCTR	Noavg 41.8¢	$1.2K	$453.99	-$770.67	77% 632-185 (817)
Car	Yesavg 46.9¢	$183.9	$331.24	+$145.38	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
probability	Yesavg 64.9¢	$225.39	$293.59	+$68.2	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0x8712	Yesavg 55.4¢	$166.29	$253.5	+$87.21	30% 102-237 (339)
AS astapzippoCTR	Noavg 19.1¢	$266.84	$216.34	-$50.49	56% 2161-1708 (3869)
ME melganis<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$23.8	$55.32	+$31.53	75% 1597-541 (2138)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$14.27	$36.64	+$22.37	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$3.39	$6.81	+$3.39	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
siick<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$2.49	$4.48	+$1.99	57% 768-580 (1348)

Barkshire-Hathaway

Yes

Invested

$2,165.74

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Yes

Invested

$2,947.78

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$410.17

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$2,330.5

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$512.16

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

flawfenceCTR

Invested

$3,937.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$377.86

Value

$928.12

PnL

+$550.26

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$804.4

Value

$836.97

PnL

+$32.57

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

alwaysOnCTR

Invested

$1,224.69

Value

$453.99

PnL

-$770.67

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

Car

Yes

Invested

$183.9

Value

$331.24

PnL

+$145.38

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

probability

Yes

Invested

$225.39

Value

$293.59

PnL

+$68.2

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x8712

Yes

Invested

$166.29

Value

$253.5

PnL

+$87.21

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

astapzippoCTR

Invested

$266.84

Value

$216.34

PnL

-$50.49

Record

56%

2161-1708 (3869)

melganis<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.8

Value

$55.32

PnL

+$31.53

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.27

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$22.37

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$3.39

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

siick<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.49

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$1.99

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 84%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4600h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

64 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.0%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.