Consensus PnL $5.8M · win rate 68% (43–20, n=63) · was PM monthly #24 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$5.8M
Record
43W / 20L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 63 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#833
Source
PM monthly #24
Trades
3,048
Markets
220
Volume
$81.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $4.2K · now 2¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
Specialties
212 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 54¢- NHL
+27 pts
side won 77% of 13 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +19%
- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 64% of 81 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 45% of 92 at an average 51¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 17% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 56% of 62)
- 50–70¢: 54%(won 51% of 115)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 86% of 29)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.