Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 17 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

17 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$-7.1K

Smart Money Entry

2.7¢ → 1.7¢

-38% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 18 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares893,108

Combined PnL$-7.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$68.85

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$7.4

Yes — 94%No — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

221 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE beachboy4CTR	Yesavg 4¢	$1.6K	$4.2K	$-5.9K	56% 67-52 (119)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$261.72	26% 351-985 (1336)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$179.49	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
MA maxiforzaCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$789.36	$1.6K	-$351.53	63% 182-109 (291)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$274.23	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$400	$784.07	+$400.52	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
RD rdbaCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.2K	$382.17	-$810.4	60% 131-88 (219)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$418.17	$320.74	-$97.43	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$260.58	$190.08	-$70.5	56% 836-644 (1480)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$10	$156.13	-$34.82	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$84.43	$87.36	+$2.93	71% 968-396 (1364)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$73.26	$73.26	+$37.44	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$32.66	$69.08	+$36.37	47% 83-94 (177)
AL Albert 1953<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$61.45	$68.85	+$7.4	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$15.11	$20.03	-$2.9	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1	$4.76	+$3.43	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NY NyetRiskCTR	Yes	$19.3K	$4.44	+$2.23	7% 14-187 (201)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$1.19	$1.19	+$0.61	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

beachboy4CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,622.76

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

56%

67-52 (119)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,351.17

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$261.72

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,914.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$179.49

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

maxiforzaCTR

Yes

Invested

$789.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$351.53

Record

63%

182-109 (291)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,423.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$274.23

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$784.07

PnL

+$400.52

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

rdbaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,184.49

Value

$382.17

PnL

-$810.4

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$418.17

Value

$320.74

PnL

-$97.43

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$260.58

Value

$190.08

PnL

-$70.5

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$156.13

PnL

-$34.82

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.43

Value

$87.36

PnL

+$2.93

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.26

Value

$73.26

PnL

+$37.44

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.66

Value

$69.08

PnL

+$36.37

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Albert 1953<$100

Invested

$61.45

Value

$68.85

PnL

+$7.4

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.11

Value

$20.03

PnL

-$2.9

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$3.43

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NyetRiskCTR

Yes

Invested

$19,301

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$2.23

Record

14-187 (201)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0.61

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 18 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

221 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3532.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

3632.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.