Consensus PnL -$435K · win rate 53% (413–363, n=776) · was PM monthly #902 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-434.8K
Record
413W / 363L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 776 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1556
Source
PM monthly #902
Trades
137
Markets
804
Volume
$9.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bills $2.4K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Ravens)
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $2 · now 7¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
398 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 55¢- MLB
+48 pts
side won 100% of 167 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +49%
- Other Sports
+44 pts
side won 99% of 82 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +17%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 100% of 74 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 89% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 100% of 123)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 100% of 212)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 100% of 54)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.