Spread: Bills (-3.5)

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (56%) · Ravens at 54¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 1

Bills47¢Ravens53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 56%

Total Value

$49.2K

Combined PnL

-$207.19

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills47%

Ravens54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens10 traders

Total Value$42.2K

Total Shares79,180

Combined PnL-$252.92

Bills8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares15,194

Combined PnL+$45.73

Ravens — 56%Bills — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bills) and the top 1000 (15 on Ravens) disagree here.

whaleRavens 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpRavens 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrRavens 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Ravens 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247	Ravensavg 54¢	$15.4K	$15.1K	-$142.5	47% 217-240 (457)
TA takeormake	Ravensavg 54¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$83.33	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
MD mde4life1986	Ravensavg 53¢	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$71.44	48% 159-175 (334)
VeryLucky888CTR	Billsavg 45.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$43.61	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
RO roldy	Ravensavg 54¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$27.69	55% 1429-1185 (2614)
beet420CTR	Billsavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$26.03	53% 402-361 (763)
ON Onomatopoeia777	Ravensavg 54¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$22.5	48% 78-86 (164)
JO jole24	Ravensavg 53.9¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$18.82	44% 1031-1292 (2323)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Ravensavg 54¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$37	48% 231-253 (484)
HE Herdonia	Ravensavg 53¢	$893.35	$901.12	+$7.77	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Billsavg 45.5¢	$614.25	$627.75	+$13.5	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
SL slimjoeCTR	Billsavg 46¢	$210.22	$212.51	+$2.29	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Billsavg 44.4¢	$199.7	$208.94	+$9.24	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Billsavg 46¢	$164.83	$166.62	+$1.79	53% 453-396 (849)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Billsavg 46¢	$85.92	$86.85	+$0.93	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Billsavg 46¢	$36.8	$37.2	+$0.4	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
GG GGLPL<$100	Ravensavg 54¢	$31.01	$30.43	-$0.29	50% 697-693 (1390)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Ravensavg 53¢	$7.28	$7.28	+$0	65% 1758-962 (2720)

BTCGambler247

Ravens

Invested

$15,390

Value

$15.1K

PnL

-$142.5

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

takeormake

Ravens

Invested

$8,999.64

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$83.33

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

mde4life1986

Ravens

Invested

$7,565.6

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$71.44

Record

48%

159-175 (334)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bills

Invested

$3,260.2

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$43.61

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

roldy

Ravens

Invested

$2,967.67

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$27.69

Record

55%

1429-1185 (2614)

beet420CTR

Bills

Invested

$2,447.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$26.03

Record

53%

402-361 (763)

Onomatopoeia777

Ravens

Invested

$2,430

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

48%

78-86 (164)

jole24

Ravens

Invested

$2,285.44

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$18.82

Record

44%

1031-1292 (2323)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Ravens

Invested

$1,998

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$37

Record

48%

231-253 (484)

Herdonia

Ravens

Invested

$893.35

Value

$901.12

PnL

+$7.77

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Bills

Invested

$614.25

Value

$627.75

PnL

+$13.5

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

slimjoeCTR

Bills

Invested

$210.22

Value

$212.51

PnL

+$2.29

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

BoomLaLaCTR

Bills

Invested

$199.7

Value

$208.94

PnL

+$9.24

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Bills

Invested

$164.83

Value

$166.62

PnL

+$1.79

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$85.92

Value

$86.85

PnL

+$0.93

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$36.8

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

GGLPL<$100

Ravens

Invested

$31.01

Value

$30.43

PnL

-$0.29

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

darkumbreon88<$100

Ravens

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bills) and the top 1000 (15 on Ravens) disagree here.

whaleRavens 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpRavens 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrRavens 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Ravens 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.