Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 94¢ · $43K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$43.1K

Combined PnL

-$733.68

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 93.5¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$36.3K

Total Shares38,773

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares98,092

Combined PnL$-3.8K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

46 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SA saftey-first	Noavg 86¢	$26.8K	$29.1K	+$2.3K	— 12-5 (17)
FL flawfence	Noavg 83¢	$3.8K	$4.3K	+$482.44	46% 271-319 (590)
GA gatorrCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$5.3K	$3.5K	$-2.1K	49% 389-405 (794)
SA salahmh	Noavg 85.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$192.54	43% 323-428 (751)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$3.4K	$2.1K	$-1.4K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 90¢	$511.83	$531.73	+$19.9	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$221.05	$443.21	+$55.83	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$611.5	$331.23	-$280.27	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$366.04	$252	-$114.04	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yes	$135.09	$135.09	+$66.96	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 52.6¢	$56.97	$107.68	+$0.7	69% 156-69 (225)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$107.11	$58.26	-$48.85	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$18.9	$37.47	+$18.57	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 93¢	$22.88	$23	+$0.12	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
solwizzo-onX<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$14.93	$16.63	+$1.7	67% 347-174 (521)
ED Ed2357CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$10	$5.83	-$4.58	— 0-3 (3)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.68	+$0.43	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.68	+$0.43	73% 41-15 (56)
beet420CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$3.52	$1.76	-$1.88	53% 402-361 (763)

saftey-first

Invested

$26,751.46

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

—

12-5 (17)

flawfence

Invested

$3,813.54

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$482.44

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

gatorrCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,333.34

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

49%

389-405 (794)

salahmh

Invested

$1,998.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$192.54

Record

43%

323-428 (751)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,449.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$511.83

Value

$531.73

PnL

+$19.9

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$221.05

Value

$443.21

PnL

+$55.83

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$611.5

Value

$331.23

PnL

-$280.27

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$366.04

Value

$252

PnL

-$114.04

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.09

Value

$135.09

PnL

+$66.96

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$56.97

Value

$107.68

PnL

+$0.7

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.11

Value

$58.26

PnL

-$48.85

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.9

Value

$37.47

PnL

+$18.57

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$22.88

Value

$23

PnL

+$0.12

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

solwizzo-onX<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$16.63

PnL

+$1.7

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

Ed2357CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$4.58

Record

—

0-3 (3)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.43

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.43

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

beet420CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$1.88

Record

53%

402-361 (763)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

46 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.