Consensus PnL $106K · win rate 69% (365–162, n=527) · PM monthly #747 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$105.7K
Record
365W / 162L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 527 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#782
Source
PM monthly #747
Trades
132
Markets
564
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $29K · now 90¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $28K · now 83¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $12K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.6K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
Specialties
426 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 74¢- Crypto
+30 pts
side won 96% of 24 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +30%
- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 97% of 177 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +15%
- MLB
+17 pts
side won 89% of 57 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 50% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 59% of 29)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 84% of 110)
- 70¢ and up: 66%(won 96% of 281)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.