Consensus PnL $216K · win rate 94% (563–37, n=600) · was PM monthly #775 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$216.4K
Record
563W / 37L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 600 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#167
Source
PM monthly #775
Trades
21
Markets
614
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $22K · now 75¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
Specialties
597 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 81¢- Esports
+18 pts
side won 98% of 491 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +15%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 88% of 85 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 89% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 95% of 75)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 97% of 511)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.