Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 76¢ · $57K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

Total Value

$57.2K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 75.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$48.4K

Total Shares63,680

Combined PnL+$3.8K

No7 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares35,265

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL bluemol	Yes	$21.5K	$21.5K	+$1.7K	75% 569-193 (762)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998	Yesavg 69.4¢	$9.4K	$10.3K	+$939.86	56% 261-208 (469)
saintaphextwin	Yesavg 66.9¢	$8.9K	$10.1K	+$1.2K	39% 397-627 (1024)
DR drunkdegenerateCTR	Noavg 31¢	$4.6K	$3.7K	$-1.1K	54% 198-167 (365)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 80.8¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$153.69	81% 250-58 (308)
VI vibing123CTR	Noavg 31¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$655.54	52% 1575-1457 (3032)
BA BabooouCTR	Noavg 30¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$577.72	52% 214-200 (414)
SU suleng66	Yesavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$188.41	63% 204-118 (322)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 77¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$23.43	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
MI milkteabobaCTR	Noavg 18¢	$221.54	$307.7	+$80	69% 38-17 (55)
BE berlinskies	Yesavg 70¢	$150	$162.86	+$11.79	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 75.7¢	$92.98	$106.86	+$13.88	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$8.28	$7.06	-$1.23	50% 7330-7454 (14784)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 28.7¢	$7.4	$6.03	-$1.37	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$0.79	$0.96	+$0.17	52% 5046-4713 (9759)

bluemol

Yes

Invested

$21,532.26

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

75%

569-193 (762)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998

Yes

Invested

$9,399.94

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$939.86

Record

56%

261-208 (469)

saintaphextwin

Yes

Invested

$8,908.44

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

drunkdegenerateCTR

Invested

$4,649.97

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

198-167 (365)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$2,897.11

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$153.69

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$3,127.37

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$655.54

Record

52%

1575-1457 (3032)

BabooouCTR

Invested

$2,666.4

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$577.72

Record

52%

214-200 (414)

suleng66

Yes

Invested

$2,014.49

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$188.41

Record

63%

204-118 (322)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$1,214.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$23.43

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

milkteabobaCTR

Invested

$221.54

Value

$307.7

PnL

+$80

Record

69%

38-17 (55)

berlinskies

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$162.86

PnL

+$11.79

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$92.98

Value

$106.86

PnL

+$13.88

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR<$100

Invested

$8.28

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$1.23

Record

50%

7330-7454 (14784)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$1.37

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.