Consensus PnL -$482K · win rate 47% (92–103, n=195) · was PM monthly #96 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-482.3K
Record
92W / 103L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 195 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1927
Source
PM monthly #96
Trades
66
Markets
196
Volume
$5.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Oilers vs. RangersRangers $14K · now 55¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Oilers)
Specialties
91 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- NHL
+48 pts
side won 100% of 64 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +46%
- NFL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 100% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 60%(won 100% of 55)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.