Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Oilers, while the market favors Rangers (55%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Oilers vs. Rangers

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (36%) · Oilers at 46¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 1

Oilers46¢Rangers54¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 36%

Total Value

$45.3K

Combined PnL

-$414.27

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 45.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Oilers46%

Rangers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers7 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares28,077

Combined PnL+$147.71

Oilers4 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares66,635

Combined PnL-$561.98

Rangers — 64%Oilers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRangers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOilers 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRangers 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedRangers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rangers 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Rangersavg 54¢	$14.0K	$14.1K	+$129.49	46% 88-104 (192)
BT btmx6CTR	Oilersavg 46¢	$13.7K	$13.4K	-$148.79	42% 18-25 (43)
LI Libratus007CTR	Oilersavg 47¢	$11.0K	$10.6K	-$351.76	— 12-1 (13)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Oilersavg 46¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$34.26	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
RO roldyCTR	Oilersavg 45.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$27.17	55% 1429-1185 (2614)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Rangersavg 53¢	$530	$540	+$15	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
CO cocococococo	Rangersavg 55¢	$305.25	$299.7	-$2.77	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
RollAwayTheDew	Rangersavg 54¢	$181.44	$181.44	+$1.68	53% 453-396 (849)
0xheavy888	Rangersavg 53¢	$106	$109	+$3	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Rangersavg 53¢	$43.46	$44.28	+$1.23	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Rangersavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.7	+$0.08	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

chubbytoro

Rangers

Invested

$13,985.42

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$129.49

Record

46%

88-104 (192)

btmx6CTR

Oilers

Invested

$13,691.26

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$148.79

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

Libratus007CTR

Oilers

Invested

$11,024.31

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$351.76

Record

—

12-1 (13)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Oilers

Invested

$3,151.92

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$34.26

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

roldyCTR

Oilers

Invested

$3,013.72

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$27.17

Record

55%

1429-1185 (2614)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Rangers

Invested

$530

Value

$540

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

cocococococo

Rangers

Invested

$305.25

Value

$299.7

PnL

-$2.77

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

RollAwayTheDew

Rangers

Invested

$181.44

Value

$181.44

PnL

+$1.68

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

0xheavy888

Rangers

Invested

$106

Value

$109

PnL

+$3

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Rangers

Invested

$43.46

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$1.23

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

ameisgoat11<$100

Rangers

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRangers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOilers 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperOilers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRangers 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedRangers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Rangers 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.