Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 52% (1346–1266, n=2612) · PM monthly #449 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$64.3K
Record
1346W / 1266L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 2612 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1094
Source
PM monthly #449
Record (90 d)
1814/3572 · 51%
Trades
4,277
Markets
4,447
Volume
$2.2M
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Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 13 on the consensus side (62%)- Spread: Ohio (-7.5)Akron $4.1K · now 55¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (67% of 13)
- Spread: Ohio (-9.5)Akron $3.8K · now 75¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (57% of 8)
- Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): O/U 55.5Under $2.8K · now 34¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (33% of 11)
- Spread: Ohio (-1.5)Ohio $2.2K · now 65¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Spread: Ohio (-11.5)Akron $2.2K · now 78¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Ohio)
- Spread: Ohio (-5.5)Akron $812 · now 78¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Ohio)
- Ohio vs. Akron: O/U 51.5Under $504 · now 71¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (90% of 23)
- North Florida Ospreys vs. California Baptist LancersCalifornia Baptist Lancers $357 · now 54¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (62% of 21)
Specialties
1,940 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 50¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where cm2897's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: College Football — held side won 50% of 922 at an average 50¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 7% of 450)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 41% of 508)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 61% of 528)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 90% of 454)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.