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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Ohio — but Akron won instead.

Spread: Ohio (-11.5)

Resolved Akron. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Ohio. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Ohio 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio0%

Akron100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Akron3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,889

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Ohio6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,453

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Akron — 33%Ohio — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Akronavg 55¢	$1.2K	$2.2K	+$999.9	51% 2083-1999 (4082)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Akronavg 64.8¢	$701.55	$651.33	-$50.22	53% 11571-10123 (21694)
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 64.8¢	$421.97	$651.33	+$229.36
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 25¢	$279.58	—	-$279.58
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Ohioavg 45¢	$999.9	—	-$999.9	48% 281-309 (590)
VeryLucky888CTR	Ohioavg 53¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	58% 44814-32606 (77420)
TO topdogbigboi	Akronavg 80.5¢	$311.85	$387.17	+$75.32	47% 10701-12047 (22748)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Akronavg 85.1¢	$243.55	$279.61	+$36.06	56% 7690-6106 (13796)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Ohioavg 55.2¢	$50.22	—	-$50.22	46% 902-1080 (1982)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Ohioavg 31.1¢	$20.87	—	-$20.87	54% 1090-911 (2001)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Ohioavg 42¢	$17.42	—	-$17.42	51% 4531-4396 (8927)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Ohioavg 31¢	$10.27	—	-$10.27	53% 1052-943 (1995)

Invested

$1,222.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$999.9

Record

51%

2083-1999 (4082)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Invested

$701.55

Value

$651.33

PnL

-$50.22

Record

53%

11571-10123 (21694)

Both legs:

Akron$421.9764.8¢+$229.36

Ohio$279.5825¢-$279.58

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$999.9

Value

—

PnL

-$999.9

Record

48%

281-309 (590)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,060

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

44814-32606 (77420)

Invested

$311.85

Value

$387.17

PnL

+$75.32

Record

47%

10701-12047 (22748)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$243.55

Value

$279.61

PnL

+$36.06

Record

56%

7690-6106 (13796)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Invested

$50.22

Value

—

PnL

-$50.22

Record

46%

902-1080 (1982)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$20.87

Value

—

PnL

-$20.87

Record

54%

1090-911 (2001)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Invested

$17.42

Value

—

PnL

-$17.42

Record

51%

4531-4396 (8927)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$10.27

Value

—

PnL

-$10.27

Record

53%

1052-943 (1995)

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xefe86d07...779823

Slug

cfb-ohio-akron-2026-11-03-spread-away-11pt5

Traders in this Market

cm2897

Akron — $2.2K

justaluckydude

Arbitrage — excluded

Multicoloured-Serf

Ohio — $0

VeryLucky888

Ohio — $0

topdogbigboi

Akron — $387.17

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Akron — $279.61

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1

Ohio — $0

Limousin

Ohio — $0

6512395314597884

Ohio — $0

LightParadox

Ohio — $0

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