Consensus PnL $3.6K · win rate 52% (33–30, n=63) · was PM monthly #630 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$3.6K
Record
33W / 30L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 63 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1670
Source
PM monthly #630
Trades
9
Markets
81
Volume
$29.4K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes $69 · now 12¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
51 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 46¢- Esports
+10 pts
side won 59% of 34 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +8%
- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 53% of 17 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 29% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 47%(won 58% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 63% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.