Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 89¢ · $10K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$10.1K
$313.69
84.9¢ → 88.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
2121h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 84.9¢ | $8.3K | $8.7K | +$350.26 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | -$28.44 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 coockroach1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $85.36 | $69 | -$16.36 | 48% 34-37 (71) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $56.7 | $61.95 | +$5.25 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
 PMTraderAdam<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $37.9 | $40.9 | +$3 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $7.33 | $7.3 | -$0.03 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
AllByMyseIfInvested
$8,323.4
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$350.26
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
Invested
$1,243.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$28.44
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
coockroach1CTR<$100Invested
$85.36
Value
$69
PnL
-$16.36
Record
48%
34-37 (71)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$61.95
PnL
+$5.25
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
PMTraderAdam<$100Invested
$37.9
Value
$40.9
PnL
+$3
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$7.33
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.