Consensus PnL $172K · win rate 27% (3790–10413, n=14203) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$172.5K
Record
3790W / 10413L
Win Rate
27.0%
of 14203 settled
Batting Avg
32.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2218
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,099,224
Markets
29,282
Volume
$14.1M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Anasse Kazib win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Sylvain Durif win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
Specialties
17,932 settled consensus markets · held side won 26% at an average entry of 10¢- Soccer
+28 pts
side won 50% of 1401 · avg entry 22¢
ROI +3%
- Weather
+25 pts
side won 39% of 1097 · avg entry 14¢
ROI +13%
- Elections
+18 pts
side won 27% of 3167 · avg entry 10¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 91%(won 19% of 16351)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 96% of 371)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 100% of 1209)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.