Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anasse Kazib win the 2027 French presidential election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $16 held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$16.38
-$206.23
0.5¢ → 0.1¢
-89% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
226h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $12.45 | $5.64 | -$82.49 | 42% 9966-13873 (23839) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $4.03 | -$58.88 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $48.4 | $3.1 | -$45.36 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0 | $1.98 | +$1.98 | 40% 9458-14191 (23649) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.15 | $1.04 | -$15.15 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $6.91 | $0.44 | -$6.47 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $0.15 | +$0.15 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$12.45
Value
$5.64
PnL
-$82.49
Record
42%
9966-13873 (23839)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$58.88
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$48.4
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$45.36
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
Invested
$0
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$1.98
Record
40%
9458-14191 (23649)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$15.15
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
Invested
$6.91
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$6.47
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.15
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.