Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 66% (102–52, n=154) · was PM monthly #995 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$29.5K
Record
102W / 52L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 154 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#903
Source
PM monthly #995
Trades
97
Markets
195
Volume
$797.3K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $1.1K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
Specialties
137 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 50¢- NFL
+31 pts
side won 81% of 86 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +34%
- College Football
+31 pts
side won 80% of 30 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 44%(won 75% of 60)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 91% of 65)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 89% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.