Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$822.68

Smart Money Entry

1.2¢ → 1.5¢

+24% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares275,097

Combined PnL+$822.68

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$379.29	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
CU cubsfan333CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$930.21	$1.1K	+$161.94	53% 102-89 (191)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$329	$460.59	+$148.05	46% 49-57 (106)
JA jaja5050CTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$187	$154	-$27.5	63% 182-109 (291)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$98.45	$98.45	+$50.55	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$49.85	$92.67	+$42.74	47% 83-94 (177)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$10.4	$77	-$30.24	53% 906-789 (1695)
PL plumbisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$70	$70	+$2.5	57% 51-39 (90)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$46.63	+$48.3	26% 351-985 (1336)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$33.88	$32.88	+$0.18	68% 56-26 (82)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$8.89	$30.8	+$21.91	68% 2074-957 (3031)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$7.98	$28.84	-$14.37	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$13.42	$28	+$29	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.16	$21	+$15.84	58% 1153-825 (1978)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$16	$14	-$1	69% 987-450 (1437)
siickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$14.95	$9.79	-$5.16	57% 767-580 (1347)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.91	$7.75	+$4.65	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.65	$5.6	-$4.01	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,244.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$379.29

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

cubsfan333CTR

Yes

Invested

$930.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$161.94

Record

53%

102-89 (191)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$329

Value

$460.59

PnL

+$148.05

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

jaja5050CTR

Yes

Invested

$187

Value

$154

PnL

-$27.5

Record

63%

182-109 (291)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.45

Value

$98.45

PnL

+$50.55

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.85

Value

$92.67

PnL

+$42.74

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$77

PnL

-$30.24

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

plumbisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70

Value

$70

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$46.63

PnL

+$48.3

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.88

Value

$32.88

PnL

+$0.18

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$21.91

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.98

Value

$28.84

PnL

-$14.37

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.42

Value

$28

PnL

+$29

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$21

PnL

+$15.84

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$14

PnL

-$1

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

siickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.95

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$5.16

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$4.65

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$4.01

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3828.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

3928.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.