Consensus PnL $32K · win rate 47% (437–492, n=929) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$32.4K
Record
437W / 492L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 929 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1914
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
155
Markets
991
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $807 · now 15¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
655 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 46¢- NFL
+43 pts
side won 97% of 34 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +41%
- Esports
+26 pts
side won 69% of 426 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +25%
- NBA
+18 pts
side won 71% of 117 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 52% of 77)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 70% of 279)
- 50–70¢: 44%(won 75% of 290)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 89% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.