Consensus PnL $288K · win rate 52% (631–590, n=1221) · was PM monthly #995 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$287.9K
Record
631W / 590L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1221 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1623
Source
PM monthly #995
Trades
1,011
Markets
1,364
Volume
$5.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $51 · now 1¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $14 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
Specialties
724 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+37 pts
side won 89% of 522 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +33%
- Soccer
+34 pts
side won 85% of 157 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +34%
- Tennis
+44 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 65% of 127)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 86% of 174)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 95% of 244)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 99% of 179)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.