Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $744 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$743.78

Combined PnL

$-6.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.1¢

-61% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$743.78

Total Shares628,502

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.8K	$324.92	-$733.32	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
BU button-clickerCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$487.34	$201.57	-$285.77	58% 161-116 (277)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yes	$181.77	$181.77	$-5.3K	43% 561-738 (1299)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$51.42	$15.43	-$35.99	50% 5953-6043 (11996)
F3 f3arlessCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$40.53	$14.15	-$26.38	49% 659-695 (1354)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$115.01	$5.29	-$109.72	11% 20-166 (186)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.44	$0.44	-$5.9	57% 3069-2357 (5426)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.71	$0.2	-$5.51	83% 2683-538 (3221)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,845.55

Value

$324.92

PnL

-$733.32

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

button-clickerCTR

Yes

Invested

$487.34

Value

$201.57

PnL

-$285.77

Record

58%

161-116 (277)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.77

Value

$181.77

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.42

Value

$15.43

PnL

-$35.99

Record

50%

5953-6043 (11996)

f3arlessCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.53

Value

$14.15

PnL

-$26.38

Record

49%

659-695 (1354)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR

Yes

Invested

$115.01

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$109.72

Record

11%

20-166 (186)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$5.9

Record

57%

3069-2357 (5426)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$5.51

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

729h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.