Consensus PnL $5.0K · win rate 78% (357–103, n=460) · was PM monthly #969 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$5.0K
Record
357W / 103L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 460 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#492
Source
PM monthly #969
Trades
74
Markets
510
Volume
$782.9K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $1.1K · now 7¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
378 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 78¢- Esports
+22 pts
side won 98% of 332 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +15%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 94% of 18 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 91% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 99% of 93)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 99% of 258)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.