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DB
Consensus PnL $68K · win rate 44% (463–580, n=1043) · PM monthly #971 · holds 3 consensus positions
0xdb3a293f...aa29d1ccPolymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$67.5K
Record
463W / 580L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 1043 settled
Batting Avg
52.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2010
Source
PM monthly #971
Trades
1,120
Markets
1,415
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?Yes $1.4K · now 46¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- Will SC Braga win on 2026-11-01?Yes $512 · now 59¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $200 · now 14¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
714 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 49¢- Soccer
+15 pts
side won 64% of 711 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 24% of 208)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 56% of 133)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 84% of 178)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 95% of 195)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.