Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 87¢ · $51K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
15
No 33%
$50.8K
$332.18
86.9¢ → 86.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
1259h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1922 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $25.1K | $25.6K | +$344.77 | 66% 885-454 (1339) |
MO Momo63 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $11.7K | $11.8K | -$36.74 | 93% 879-63 (942) |
 timebrotimeCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $7.0K | $6.4K | -$267.1 | 67% 893-435 (1328) |
 Nooserac | Noavg 88¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$15 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
 UbuntuTrading | Noavg 87.1¢ | $3.0K | $1.7K | -$13.97 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
VO vovatoxicCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$30.97 | 49% 70-74 (144) |
 debasedCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $555.5 | $666.6 | +$138.88 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
FO forrestgumperCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $200 | $200 | +$8.33 | 48% 621-680 (1301) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $126 | $138 | +$17.75 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $3.42 | $120.6 | +$121.09 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $125.01 | $120.01 | -$5 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
0X 0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678CTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $120 | $120 | +$5 | 34% 395-779 (1174) |
 StarMasterCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $120 | $120 | +$5 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $45.52 | $43.79 | -$1.73 | 53% 2250-1980 (4230) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $12.95 | $12.95 | -$0.07 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
1922Invested
$25,076.6
Value
$25.6K
PnL
+$344.77
Record
66%
885-454 (1339)
Invested
$11,735.56
Value
$11.8K
PnL
-$36.74
Record
93%
879-63 (942)
timebrotimeCTRInvested
$6,978.21
Value
$6.4K
PnL
-$267.1
Record
67%
893-435 (1328)
NooseracInvested
$2,639.98
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$15
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
UbuntuTradingInvested
$2,961
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$13.97
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$1,100
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$30.97
Record
49%
70-74 (144)
debasedCTRInvested
$555.5
Value
$666.6
PnL
+$138.88
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$8.33
Record
48%
621-680 (1301)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$126
Value
$138
PnL
+$17.75
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$120.6
PnL
+$121.09
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$125.01
Value
$120.01
PnL
-$5
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$120
Value
$120
PnL
+$5
Record
34%
395-779 (1174)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$120
Value
$120
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$45.52
Value
$43.79
PnL
-$1.73
Record
53%
2250-1980 (4230)
vinii<$100Invested
$12.95
Value
$12.95
PnL
-$0.07
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.