Consensus PnL $413K · win rate 79% (145–38, n=183) · PM monthly #421 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$412.9K
Record
145W / 38L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 183 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#468
Source
PM monthly #421
Trades
24
Markets
203
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $5.4K · now 34¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
141 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+40 pts
side won 91% of 75 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +36%
- NBA
+44 pts
side won 95% of 22 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +43%
- Esports
+39 pts
side won 91% of 33 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 0% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 41%(won 86% of 58)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 93% of 73)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 100% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.